Prospects

• International monetary reform usually becomes possible only in response to a felt need and the threat of a global crisis.

• Global crisis would have to involve the dollar.

• Many economists warn of global imbalances centered on US deficit problem

• Intor Plan a contingency.

• Prospects for a meeting in Shanghai in 2010 not so remote if smaller countries want it.

• Chance of a world currency in ten years? 30%.